Israel’s strikes might accelerate Iran’s race towards nuclear weapons

Defence affairs - dr marion messmer

Israel attacked a range of Iranian military and nuclear sites on 12–13 June, in an attempt to prevent Tehran from making further progress towards acquiring nuclear weapons.

Israel targeted missile bases, nuclear sites, nuclear scientists and military personnel – all important parts of a potential nuclear weapons programme. Iranian defences appear to have been powerless to prevent the attack.  

Israel has threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear programme for a long time. The attacks come during a period of reprised nuclear diplomacy between the US and Iran. They also follow a formal vote by the IAEA board of governors in favour of a motion declaring Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. The IAEA was concerned about Iran’s undeclared nuclear materials and that it has become increasingly difficult for the agency to monitor the country’s enrichment activities.

An IAEA report, prepared ahead of the board of governors meeting, warned that Iran had enough enriched uranium to make nine nuclear weapons. With the report, and the vote, the IAEA intended to signal the seriousness of the situation and create space for Iran to return to compliance with IAEA inspections. 

That would have supported the continuation of negotiations between Iran and the US. Diplomats were supposed to meet again on Sunday for a fresh round of negotiations. Israel’s attacks have for now put an end to a diplomatic solution: Iran immediately called off the talks following Israel’s attack.

The US maintains that it did not have a part in the attacks, but it removed its diplomats from the region yesterday, suggesting it was aware that attacks were about to take place – and that it was unable or unwilling to stop Israel. US President Donald Trump now claims that Israel’s attacks were part of a US strategy to force Iran to accept a deal.

Iran has long hedged its bets on nuclear weapons, as various political groupings within the government hold divergent views on the risks and benefits involved. Iran has remained just below the threshold of developing a nuclear weapon, signalling the ability to develop a bomb, but stopping short of stepping over the line into becoming a nuclear power.  

That period could now be over. If the military threat from Israel is seen as growing, and stability in the region is declining, a stronger case can be made by hardliners for Iranian nuclear weapons.