Strategic Meltdown: Iran Can Still Build Nine Nuclear Bombs Despite Allied Airstrikes, Experts Warn

Defence affairs analysis

At the core of the issue lies Iran’s estimated 400 kilograms of Uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 purity—a stockpile which, if further enriched, would yield enough weapons-grade uranium to construct nine to ten nuclear warheads.

Despite the global fanfare surrounding the recent Israeli-American military operations codenamed “Rising Lion” and “Midnight Hammer,” the stark reality is that both campaigns have failed to achieve their most critical objective: neutralizing Iran’s stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and the underground infrastructure that supports its nuclear ambitions.

Renowned non-proliferation expert Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute and the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies offered a searing indictment of the strikes, stating: “Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the U.S. have failed to target significant elements of Iran’s nuclear materials and production infrastructure. Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself cited this as a principal justification for the preemptive strikes, asserting: “Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs—nine.”

According to intelligence assessments, this stockpile was being stored inside fortified underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility.

Despite extensive aerial bombardment of the facility by Israeli and U.S. assets, there appears to have been no direct attempt to destroy these tunnels or the critical nuclear material within.

Worse still, the current location of the HEU stockpile remains unknown.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi has confirmed that Iran moved the uranium prior to the attacks.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio controversially claimed that “nothing can move” inside Iran, a statement that is now contradicted by clear visual and satellite evidence showing heavy equipment and trucks mobilizing days before the strikes.

This equipment was observed at Isfahan, likely involved in sealing tunnels or relocating sensitive nuclear components.

Similar truck activity was reported at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP), where entrances were reportedly buried under dirt, suggesting a coordinated Iranian effort to obscure and protect vital assets.

The notion that Iran is somehow immobilized or technologically incapable of rapid response has been thoroughly discredited.

Washington’s fallback talking point is that the strikes succeeded in crippling Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium further or convert it into metal, a necessary step in weaponizing HEU.

However, Dr. Lewis categorically refutes this narrative, stating: “IT’S NOT FINE.”

He acknowledges that while the enrichment sites at Qom (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) and Natanz (Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and Fuel Enrichment Plant) may have sustained meaningful damage, the vast underground complex adjacent to Natanz—reportedly housing Iran’s centrifuge production line—remains untouched.

This subterranean facility, moved deep into the mountains in 2022, is estimated to span over 10,000 square meters.

Its reinforced depth makes it highly resistant to conventional bunker-busting munitions, and its precise capabilities remain unknown, though experts warn it may house not just centrifuge production but also clandestine enrichment operations.

Even more alarming is Iran’s recent disclosure to the IAEA regarding a new enrichment facility at an undisclosed secure location near Isfahan.

The agency was reportedly preparing to inspect the site prior to the airstrikes.